Dr. Maxime Lefebvre and his team are working to increase the understanding and capacity to forecast the movement and abundance of cutworm species under different climate scenarios by studying the biotic and abiotic factors that impact population dynamics. Resulting predictive models will be used to help optimize cutworm control methods in organic vegetable production.
Research Objectives
- Evaluate favourable conditions for dark-sided cutworm populations, egg and larval survival
- Develop predictive models and assess the impact of climate changes
- Develop cutworm control methods in organic vegetable production
Related Resources
Progress and Results
Research Update (March 2026)
KEY TAKEAWAYS (PRELIMINARY OBSERVATIONS)
- Wind trajectory modelling helped identify potential origins of migrating black cutworm moths and wind patterns associated with high moth capture, but integration of additional weather variables is needed to improve forecasting of migration events.
- Phenological models for the dark-sided cutworm are under development. Future predictive models will incorporate information on natural enemies, environmental factors and cutworm behaviour to better forecast population dynamics.
- Field plots were established to evaluate the effects of mechanical weeding and agroecosystem management practices, such as flower strips, on cutworm populations.
Research Update (March 2025)
KEY TAKEAWAYS (PRELIMINARY OBSERVATIONS)
- The research team continued model development including an innovative approach that accounts for the natural behavior of the black cutworm moth.
Additional Links and Resources
Factsheet (Mar 2026) Back-trajectory Analysis to Understand Black Cutworm Migration in Canada
Article (Dec 2025) Les ravageurs débarquent! : mieux comprendre la migration des vers-gris (French only)
Background Information
From the research activity proposal:
Biovigilance research is crucial to understand and combat effects of pest movements and adapt farm practices to improve crop health in a context of climate change adaptation. Cutworms are part of the pest complex causing damage to a wide scope of crops and sectors. Migratory species abundance such as Agrotis ipsilon, the black cutworm (BCW), are quite challenging to predict. However, our capacity to understand and forecast under different climate change scenario will improve resilience of the organic sector, and beyond.
Euxoa messoria, dark-sided cutworm (DSC), is also one of the major species found in the cutworm complex that may lead to total crop lost under heavy pressure. Predictive models and risk infestation forecasting are important tools to improve our understanding of the population dynamics and environmental factors that reduced the dark-sided cutworm damages under economical thresholds.
This project proposes to study the biotic and abiotic factors acting on the population dynamics of BCW and DSC to develop and build predictive models to forecast the risk of infestation and support the development and optimization of new control methods. To achieve this goal, three main activities will be realized:
1) First, long-range dispersal of BCW and field risk in Eastern Canada will be studied by using historical meteorological data describing wind trajectories, pressure systems and moth counts in provincial trapping networks from the past 13 years.
2) Second, the favourable conditions for DSC populations, egg and larval survival will be studied to develop predictive models. Process-based models will be developed from literature and supported with experiments on egg and larval mortality and development factors. Models will be developed with laboratory assays and field observations at the Organic Agriculture Innovation Platform (OAIP), Research and Development Institute for the agri-environment inc. (IRDA).
3) Finally, development of cutworm control methods in vegetable organic production will be realized at the OAIP, where the susceptibility of larvae to mechanical weeding operations will be assessed. This will lead to development of a new approach to optimize operations on farms and develop a new method for controlling soil-dwelling pests, like cutworms. Also, agroecosystems management approaches improving natural mortality factors of eggs and larvae will be studied.
Understanding black cutworm and DSC infestation risks according to multifactorial favourable conditions under a perspective of climate change constitutes a new contribution to knowledge. The project will provide new control methods and approaches based on accurate coordination between crop colonization by larvae and weeding operations to increase cutworm mortality. The research outcomes will address the critical need to better understand and reduce cutworm damages on organic farms.
Contributing Partners
Meet the Research Team
Dr. Maxime Lefebvre
Dr. Maxime Lefebvre is a researcher at the Research and Development Institute for the Agri-environment inc. (IRDA). Dr. Lefebvre began his career at IRDA as a research assistant in market garden entomology, later earning a Ph.D. in Plant Science from McGill University. His main areas of expertise include entomology, organic farming, pest management in vegetable crops, agri-environmental practices, mechanical weeding and pesticide alternatives.
Activity 15 Research Team
Name | Affiliation |
|---|---|
Laurence-Jochems Tanguay | IRDA |
Justin Ouellette | IRDA |
Elmer Iquira | IRDA |
Mick Wu | IRDA |
Dr. Meghan Vankosky | AAFC – Saskatoon |
Dr. Julien Saguez | CÉROM |
Anne Blondlot | Ouranos |
Jenny Leblanc | Ministère de l’Agriculture, des Pêcheries et de l’Alimentation (MAPAQ) |
Ève Cayer | Ministère de l’Agriculture, des Pêcheries et de l’Alimentation (MAPAQ) |
Tracey Baute | Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (OMAFRA) |
Claude Bertheleme | New Brunswick DAAF/MAAP |
We asked Dr. Lefebvre
What got you interested in this research project?
The cutworms form a complex of enigmatic species. Among the various research opportunities I may have as a researcher, I enjoy undertaking projects where I can satisfy my curiosity while also helping producers solve a problem for which there are few solutions due to a lack of knowledge. This is the case for grey worms.
Where is your research taking place?
Mainly in Quebec, but we will use trapping data from Ontario to build predictive model for black cutworm infestation. Also, distribution and phenological model for the dark-sided cutworm will be validated with New-Brunswick observations.
What drew you to organic agriculture research?
I find a lot of satisfaction in the idea of being able to promote the most sustainable production methods possible, where all components of the agroecosystem are considered, while also helping to address the issues faced by producers.
How are you encouraging or training the next generation of scientists?
I enjoy sharing my knowledge, and it is with a spirit of collaboration and mutual support that I like to educate the next generation of scientists.
Outside of your research pursuits, what is an activity you enjoy doing in your free time?
In the little free time I have, I enjoy jogging.
